The duration of inpatient disease ranged from 24 to 30 days. Because of uncertainty in our baseline estimates, we conducted univariate
and bivariate sensitivity analysis on key parameters, such as the frequency of icteric cases, rates of hospitalization, proportions of liver transplantation, vaccine price and outpatient care costs. A reduction of 1% a year in the incidence of hepatitis A due to improvement in sanitary conditions was also considered VE-822 molecular weight in the sensitivity analyzes. Hepatitis A seroprevalence data from the nationwide population survey ,  and , provided the following fitting parameters: k1 = (0.01762 ± 0.00096) yr−2 and k2 = (0.0699 ± 0.0048) yr−1 for the “North” area and k1 = (0.00815 ± 0.00018) yr−2 and k2 = (0.0485 ± 0.0031) yr−1 for the “South” area. Those parameters were used to estimate the force of infection for each area ( Fig. 1). We ran a simulation of the SIRV model without vaccination to estimate the proportion of infectious Ψ(a, t) ( Appendix A). This proportion was then converted to number of new infections per Selleckchem INK 128 100,000 inhabitants ( Fig. 2). The next step was simulating different vaccination scenarios: with 75% effective coverage (vaccine efficacy of 90% and coverage rate of 84%), 85% effective coverage (94% and 90%), and
90% effective coverage (95% and 95%) for both areas separately. These proportions were also converted to number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants ( Fig. 2). The numbers of new infections in both areas by age and year of occurrence were added up to run the national analysis. Table 3 and Table 4 summarize disease impact, costs and cost-effectiveness ratios of the analyses of the two areas and the national. Under the base case assumptions (two dose vaccination schedule, vaccine efficacy of 94% and coverage of 90%) a universal childhood immunization program would have a significant impact on disease epidemiology, resulting in 64% reduction in the number of icteric cases, 59% reduction in deaths and 62% decrease of life years lost, in a nationwide perspective. The reduction of the icteric cases
would be slightly larger in the “North” (68%) than in the “South” (61%), as well as the reduction in deaths, “North” (65%) and “South” (57%). The universal program brings incremental Thymidine kinase costs that are compensated for lower disease treatment costs (Table 3). Hepatitis A vaccination was a cost-saving (more effective and less expensive) strategy in the “North” (intermediate endemicity), in the “South” (low endemicity), and in Brazil as a whole from both health system and society perspective, without and with 5% discount of cost and benefits. Universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination program was a cost-effective strategy in most variations of the key estimates (Table 4). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were more sensible to variations in the proportion of icteric cases, vaccine costs and outpatient care costs.